Forecast International is projecting that 4,796 medium/heavy military rotorcraft will be produced between 2013 and 2022. The Connecticut-based market research firm estimates the value of this production at $114.4 billion in constant 2013 U.S. dollars. The company defines a medium/heavy rotorcraft as one having a gross weight of 6,804 kilograms (15,000 lb) or greater.
Annual medium/heavy military rotorcraft production has grown steadily since 2005. The Forecast International study projects that this growth will continue into 2013, when production is forecast to reach 615 rotorcraft. Thereafter, however, the study projects that yearly production will enter into a period of gradual decline, falling to only 380 rotorcraft by the year 2022.
This anticipated decline is attributable to several factors. The budgetary environment in the U.S. and many other nations has become severe, and high levels of government debt are forcing officials to look for areas, such as military budgets, in which to reduce spending.
Meanwhile, a number of key military rotorcraft acquisition programs are well into their production runs and will soon run their course. Other programs have been stretched out, with smaller annual procurement lots. At the same time, few major new procurement programs have emerged that would help keep overall build rates growing. Order backlogs at manufacturers are declining. As the market shrinks, the competition among manufacturers for market share will become ever more fierce.
Beyond the forecast timeframe, the study points to the U.S. military’s Future Vertical Lift (FVL) program as being especially important to the long-term future of the military rotorcraft industry. The FVL project involves the development and manufacture of a new rotorcraft family to meet future U.S. attack, scout, and utility rotorcraft needs. Service entry is tentatively planned for around 2030. U.S. military acquisition of FVL-based rotorcraft, combined with possible export sales, means that the market potential for such a rotorcraft family is substantial. According to Forecast International senior aerospace analyst Raymond Jaworowski, “The contractor or contractor team ultimately selected to produce the FVL series could be in a position to eventually dominate the military rotorcraft market.”
Forecast International, Inc. is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.
- Russian Helicopters plans on ditching western-built engines
- New Wheeler Army Airfield Airspace Design
- EFW Awarded $18M Contract for Procurement of 13 V-22 Processors
- Sikorsky Awarded $23M Contract for UH-60 Overhaul
- Airbus awarded Australia’s ARH Tiger support contract extension
- VIH Aerospace Achieves AS9100D Certification
- Heli-One and Caverton Sign Support Agreement
- FlightSafety integrates its Mixed Reality and VITAL 1100 Visual Systems
- H135 final assembly line starts operations
- P&WC adds Designated Maintenance Facility in China for AW139 operators
- AVX Aircraft and L3 Technologies Unveil Leap-Ahead Design
- 360-Degree Pilot Visual System Completes First Flight
- MD Helicopters enhances MD969
- Pilot shortage at Nassau County Police unit
- Air Methods closes Rainbow City base in Alabama
- Honeywell T55 Engine Powers New Future Vertical Lift Aircraft
- DRF makes successful start at new Bautzen base
- Universal Avionics Receives STC for InSight™ Touchscreen Control
- US State Dept sells little-used S61T fleet
- DRF Luftrettung buys Northern HeliCopter GmbH