JETNET’s aviation market analysis for 2013 shows percentage of aircraft for sale dropping in almost every market sector. In what is still a buyer’s market, pre-owned business jet sales transactions are up, and the economy is finally growing at a pace that is prime for positive business aviation growth.
JETNET LLC, the leading provider of corporate aviation information, has released December 2013 and 2013 year-ending results for the pre-owned business jet, business turboprop, helicopter and commercial airliner markets.
JETNET is reporting key worldwide trends across all market sectors, with over 8,300 full retail sale transactions for 2013. Except for turbine helicopters, which showed a slight increase, the fleet “For Sale” percentages for all market sectors were down in the December comparisons, with the largest drop in business jets, to 12.5% from 13.4% in December 2012.
Key Metrics (December 2013 vs. December 2012, and 2013 vs. 2012 Year-End Comparisons)
For Sale inventories continue to decline:
- Business jets for sale were at 12.5% (down 0.9 from 13.4%)
- Business turboprops for sale were at 7.7% (down .6 from 8.3%)
- Turbine helicopters for sale were at 6.4% (up 0.3 from 6.1%)
- Piston helicopters for sale were at 6.0% (down 0.1 from 6.1%)
Full Sale Transactions had mixed results, with only business jets showing growth:
- Business jets were up (0.6%)
- Business turboprops were down (-8.8%)
- Both turbine (-11.8%) and piston (-13.5%) helicopters were down by double-digits
Average Days on Market are all at very high levels:
- All market sectors showed decreases in Average Days on Market at year-end, except business jets which took 20 more days
Average Asking Prices had mixed results:
- Business jets (+10.7%), and business turboprops (+5.9%) increased
- Turbine helicopters (-2.5%) and piston helicopters (-1.3%) decreased
Pre-owned Business Jet Market “For Sale”
Several significant events have occurred since 2005 in the Business Jet “For Sale” inventory.
First, in the past 9 years the market has remained in a “Buyer’s Market”, based on 10% or greater fleet percentage of the in-operation business jets For Sale.
Second, after several years of record sales and rising aircraft values, the bubble finally burst in 2008 amid a world economic collapse and banking crisis of historic proportion. From 2007, there was a large increase in business jets in the “For Sale” inventory: 973 (or 60%) more in 2008 and 1,147 (or 70%) more in 2009. This large increase peaked in 2009.
Third, the decline, starting in 2010, of the year-end “For Sale” inventory which has remained relatively unchanged over the past four years. The percentage for sale has declined more as a result of the growth of the in-operation fleet numbers, increasing from 17,118 in 2009 to 19,478 in 2013. The year-ending 2013 “For Sale” inventory level is 2,435 or 12.5%.
Pre-owned Business Jet Market Full Retail Sale Transactions
Good news! 2013 has set a new record for the number of Pre-owned Full Retail Sale Transactions.
There were 2,303 transactions in 2013, beating the previous record peaks of 2,181 in 2007 and 2,289 last year. This record follows four years of increases from the low of 1,539 transactions recorded in 2009.
However, other pre-owned market sectors are not showing similar results. They are showing decreasing sale transactions and have mixed average asking prices, with some greater and some less compared to the same 2012 period.
Significant are the double-digit decreases in both the turbine and piston helicopter full retail sale transactions, and the increased time on the market before selling.
Pre-owned Business Jet Market By Weight Class
In a comparison of 2013 to 2012, the light weight class was the only weight class to show a decline—of 39 (or 4.2%) fewer business jet transactions. The other classes all showed increases in 2013 compared to 2012, led by the heavy class with 37 (or 5.7%) more, followed by the medium class with 14 (or 2.3%) more pre-owned business jet transactions.
U.S. Economy Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2013 (third estimate)
Real gross domestic product—the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States—increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 (that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 4.1 percent.
The economic growth as measured by domestic GDP is very good news, and the level is above the 3.0 percentage growth that is needed for business aviation to do well.
The pre-owned market continues to be very active. Now that 2014 is here and there is renewed optimism, we hope this trend for the pre-owned market, along with improvements in the world economy, will continue to push more new aircraft purchases for the new year. As for now, it continues to be a buyer’s market, with pre-owned “For Sale” inventories running around 12.5%.
Since 1988, JETNET has delivered the most comprehensive and reliable business aircraft research to its exclusive clientele of aviation professionals worldwide. JETNET is the ultimate source for information and intelligence on the worldwide business, commercial, and helicopter aircraft fleet and marketplace, comprised of some 100,000 airframes. Headquartered in its state-of-the-art facility in Utica, NY, JETNET offers comprehensive user-friendly aircraft data via real-time internet access or regular updates.
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